The Effect of Earthquake Risk on the San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market: How Has it Changed Since the Loma Prieta and Northridge Earthquakes?
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper examines the effect of relative geophysical earthquake risk on housing prices in the Bay Area. The data concludes that the effect of risk on prices is much more significant today than it was prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Evidence also suggests that the 1994 Northridge quake has played a role in shaping the time trend of the impact of this risk factor. Several different scenarios explaining the change in consumer’s internalization of earthquake risk over time are tested within the model. Conclusions moderately support a theory in which the psychological effect of large earthquakes increases the effect of earthquake risk on prices but this impact tends to wear off over time.
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